vp

VP musings

A friend sent me a note asking who I think would get picked for vice president by the remaining candidates.

That’s a really popular debate these days.

Here are my picks:
For Obama: 1. Bill Richardson 2. Wesley Clark 3. Kathleen Sebilus 4. Hillary Clinton
For Clinton: 1. Obama 2. Clark
For McCain: 1. Tim Pawlenty 2. Mike Huckabee

There seems to be a lot of people who want Obama (who looks like he has a lock on the nomination) to pick Hillary. That could still happen, but it would be a forced marriage like JFK and LBJ. The problem is that Hillary brings a lot of baggage to a campaign that likes to travel light. Obama will not have any problem pulling in Hillary’s people, so she doesn’t add anything to the ticket.

One school of thought is so Obama doesn’t appear to be slighting women, that he might pick Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebilus. It would be a smart pick that could bring in some midwestern states. Sebilus is a great leader who has proven she can reach across party lines, and she’s won two statewide elections as a Democrat in Kansas, the last one by a very big margin. Imagine Kansas voting for a Democrat for president!

But Obama’s big weakness against McCain is national security. To bolster this, he would want someone strong on military matters and foreign policy. Names tossed around here include Gen. Wesly Clark and Bill Richardson. Clark would seem to be a good pick. He has endorsed Hillary, but that might be a plus as Obama tries to smooth out the wrinkles of contention in the party. And if Obama is still looking weak among Hispanics, then Richardson would fit nicely.

If Hillary pulled out a victory, she would be under tremendous pressure to pick Obama as VP, unless he was somehow damaged in the process. If not Obama, she would pick either Clark, Richardson or Tom Vilsack. If Vilsack had delivered Iowa for Clinton like he did for Kerry in 2004, he would certainly be the VP. But he didn’t, so I have to drop him off.

I thought John McCain would for sure pick Mike Huckabee as this VP. But since Huckabee refuses to drop out, that’s probably out the window.

The top pick for McCain would probably be Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. He would help McCain placate the conservative base, and would put a blue state in play.

If you really want to have some fun, try placing a bet at Intrade, where you can play the prediction market.

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