In my column this week, I discuss how attacking Iran would be a disaster.
What I wasn't able to fit in was how the war in Iraq puts Iran in a stronger position with regard to its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Having American troops tied down in Iraq gives Iran a tremendous advantage. The Iranians know they could make things far worse for the U.S. in Iraq if they so choose. It wouldn't be too hard to flood the country with fighters and weapons, and to spark an uprising among the Shiites in Iraq against the U.S.
Despite all the bluster coming out of the White House, Iran has to conclude that Bush would be stupid to take action against them. So they have what amounts to a Mexican standoff, allowing them to pursue their nuclear ambitions.
If the U.S. withdrew from Iraq, we would have much greater leverage against Iran. An airstrike against their nuclear facilities would again be on the table, since there is little Iran could do to retaliate. The U.S. would also have more forces available to discourage an Iranian counterattack on Saudi Arabia, or an attempt to slow oil shipments out of the Persian Gulf.
Withdrawing from Iraq also diffuses the situation with Iran, giving them less incentive to pursue nuclear weapons, and more incentive to negotiate.
America needs to decide what is more important: continuing the war in Iraq or stopping Iran from getting nukes.
Delicious
Digg
Reddit
Newsvine
Google
Technorati
Your general point is on
Your general point is on target. Saber rattling at the Iranian government is counter productive for a variety of reasons. (1) Iran has been cooperating with the operations against the Taliban in Afghanistan -- any offensive action by the U.S. would only exacerbate the problems in that country, where we can use all the help we can get. (2) It has been cogently argued that Neo-Con interest in confronting Iran is less concerned with Iranian contributions to the Shiite Militias than with Iranian involvement with Hezbollah. U.S. offensive operations against Iran would only serve to make Israeli-Lebanese problems worse. (3) The question needs to be asked: If the U.S. were to take any offensive action against Iran, where would the allegiance of the Shia dominated government in Iraq lie?